Cover more incident creation scenarions

Thread for context: https://github.com/getsentry/sentry/pull/59445/files#r1394889657 There are a number of cases for monitor incident creation we don't currently handle correctly. This ticket documents those cases. There are likely more but for now this is what we've considered: Key for cases ``` X = failed I = in-progress O = OK ``` ### Unhandled incident creation cases 1. ``` X X I X X ``` could very well turn into this ``` X X O X X ``` In this scenario we would want to NOT create an incident since even though there were 4 failures with an in-progress in the middle (That we're ignoring right now), this still ended up not being an incident since it resolved with OK. 2. ``` failure_threshold=4 recovery_threshold=4 X X I X X O O ``` In this scenario imagine the 3rd check-in becomes a failure, when this happens we would have met the recovery threshold. However, when determining incidents we only look at the 4 most recent check-ins, since that's the failure threshold, because of that the 2 OK check-ins would cause us NOT to see this as an incident.